July 5, 2024
According to experts, an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 is expected if the part of the Northern Anatolian Fault Line that passes through the Sea of Marmara ruptures. Among the cities most affected by this possible earthquake, Istanbul ranks first. Strengthening the housing stock in Istanbul and urban transformation are among the most important agenda items of local governments and the construction sector. So, what is the trend of real estate values in various neighborhoods of Istanbul, where urban transformation is on the agenda?
Offering the most advanced possibilities in real estate data analysis, Indexsa sheds light on this question with its detailed research. Within the scope of the research, using IBB's Project on Updating Possible Earthquake Loss Forecasts in Istanbul Province published in 2019 The 25 oldest and most risky neighborhoods in Istanbul identified and examined the changes in the value of real estate in these neighborhoods. The results of the real estate value survey are as follows:
Pendik/Ertuğrulgazi Neighborhood: Since the 1980s, there has been a lot of slum construction. Ertuğrulgazi neighborhoodwas included in urban transformation in September 2022. Ertuğrulgazi Mahallesi, which attracts attention with its location close to Aydos Forest and Sabiha Gokcen Airport, 1283% With an increase of, the average residential value for sale in 4 years is the urban transformation region that has increased the most in nominal terms. Unit square meter price for sale 30 thousand 851 TL/m2 In the neighborhood, 2-year change in value for sale 148%; If the annual change in value for sale 31%. 4-year change in real value %178 Residential values for sale in Ertuğrulgazi, in real terms in the last year %24 seems diminished.
Maltepe/Esenkent Neighborhood: Urban transformation process accelerated in recent years with mass housing constructions Esenkent Neighborhood of Maltepe, The second region with the highest nominal increase in the value of housing for sale in 4 years among high-risk areas. Average house values for sale in Esenkent in 4 years %1010 showed an increase. Unit square meter price for sale 46 thousand 872 TL/m2 2-year change in value for sale in the neighborhood with 146%, if the annual change in value for sale %16. The 4-year real value change of the neighborhood 123%. The real change in the housing market for sale in Esenkent has been declining in the past year, as has been the case in other neighborhoods of Istanbul. Housing prices for sale in real terms over the past year 33% decreased.
Üsküdar/Yavuztürk Mahallesi: The second district in Istanbul in terms of housing stock for more than 30 years Yavuztürk Neighborhood of Üsküdar, It stands out as the second neighborhood where there will be the most losses in the event of an earthquake. Yavuztürk is also the third region to experience the highest nominal increase in housing for sale in 4 years among the neighborhoods surveyed by Indeksa. Prices for housing for sale during this period %1003 unit square meter price for sale in ascending Yavuztürk neighborhood 43 thousand 842 TL/m2. 2-year change in value for sale in the neighborhood 265%; if the annual change in value for sale 56%. Four-year change in real value 122% Real estate prices for sale in Yavuztürk recorded as real estate in last year %10 in a fallen state.
Maltepe/Gülensu Neighborhood: Also characterized as “Istanbul's balcony” due to its location on the hills with a view of the islands In Maltepe/Gülensu Neighborhood urban transformation, the subject of many years of debate. Gülensu was the region with the least increased sales value in 4 years among the neighborhoods surveyed by Indeksa. 4-year change in value for sale %394 Unit square meter price for sale in Gülensu Neighborhood, determined as 30 thousand 782 TL/m2. Year-on-year change in value for sale %38, If the 2-year change in value for sale 127%. Gülensu is also the only region among these regions whose value has decreased in real terms in 4 years. Average house price for sale in the neighborhood, in real terms in 4 years %1 decreased.
Besiktas/Ortakoy Mahallesi: Especially since its most famous street, Dereboyu, is installed on the river bed, where there is a danger not only of earthquakes but also landslides in Ortaköy The building age is quite old. However, Ortaköy is one of the neighborhoods of Istanbul, where the processes of urban transformation and empowerment are progressing slowly. This situation is also reflected in the rates of increase in value in housing prices. 4-year increase in housing for sale in Ortakoy, %531% at the level. Unit square meter price for sale 120 thousand 298 TL/m2 2-year change in value for sale in the neighborhood with 93%, if the annual change in value for sale 39%. The housing market for sale in 4 years in real terms 27% rising prices in the neighborhood in real terms over the past year %20 decreased.
Beyoglu/İstiklal: Istanbul's shooting center Beyoglu/İstiklal Mahallesi urban transformation work has been ongoing for more than 10 years. Housing prices for sale in İstiklal Mahallal increased 5 times in 4 years. Unit square meter price for sale 119 thousand 620 TL/m2 He reached. 2-year change in value for sale in the neighborhood 122%; if the annual change in value for sale 32% at the level. 4-year real value change in İstiklal %30 when recorded as, housing prices for sale in real terms for the past year %24 decreased.
Fatih/Kocamustafapaşa: One of the oldest districts of Istanbul ConquerorIt is one of the regions with the highest risk of earthquakes due to the fact that the housing stock is the oldest district. Due to its historical value, the process of urban transformation is pregnant with controversy Kocamustafapaşa Neighborhood, stands out as the region where the greatest losses will occur in Fatih in the event of an earthquake. Housing prices for sale in Kocamustafapaşa have increased 6 times in 4 years. Unit square meter price for sale 28 thousand 963 TL/m2 2-year change in value for sale in the neighborhood with 161%; if the annual change in value for sale %25 levels. 4-year change in real value 44% Housing prices for sale in the neighborhood in the past year 28% decreased.
Kadıköy/ Fırtepe: The subject of criticism due to lack of public space following a painful process of urban transformation Fırtepe, the area with the highest rent increase in 4 years among the neighborhoods identified by the Index. 4-year rental value increase in Fırtepe %1330, If the real rental value increases 188%. Unit square meter price for rent in this neighborhood 386 TL/m2 It happened.
Eagle/Freedom: In Hurriyet Neighborhood 4-year nominal rental value increase %13, increase in real rental value 182% recorded as. Price per unit square meter for rent 196 TL/m2 measured as.
Eagle/Orhantepe: The Eagle Orhantepe Neighborhood'NDE 4-year nominal rental value increase %1269, if the real rental value increase 176%. Unit price per square meter for rent in the neighborhood 219 TL/m2 measured as.
Pendik/Ertuğrulgazi: In Ertuğrulgazi Neighborhood rents in 4 years 55% It has increased nominally. When this data is taken out of inflation, the real rental prices in 4 years 69% It seems to have fallen. Unit price per square meter for rent in Ertuğrulgazi 87 TL/m2.
Maltepe/Gülensu: In Gülensu Neighborhood 4-year nominal rental value increase 83% at the level. Adjusted for inflation, it was determined that rental housing prices fell 63% in real terms. Residential unit price per square meter for rent in Gulensu 126 TL/m2 It happened.
Besiktas Ortakoy: In Ortakoy Neighborhood 4-year nominal rental value increase 572% while in this process, the value of rental housing prices in real terms %35 increased. If the unit price per square meter for rent in this neighborhood 356 TL/m2 seen at the level.
